Ukraine on a Hot Plate: Escalation of the War and Failure of Peace Efforts

Arab Sea Newspaper - Special

Ukraine on a Hot Plate: Escalation of the War and Failure of Peace Efforts Special - Arab Sea In a new escalation of the crisis that began more than two years ago, the war in Ukraine continues with a clear decline in the chances of peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is avoiding any direct meeting for peace, confirming the continuation of attacks on the Donbas and Kharkiv regions. These developments come amid increasing Western international pressure on Moscow and the threat of imposing tougher sanctions, which is redrawing the map of political and security balances in Europe and the world. Strategic Analysis 1- Geopolitical Dimensions • The war reflects changing power balances between Russia and the West, with each side seeking to strengthen its influence without reaching a comprehensive solution. • The continuation of the conflict puts neighboring European countries such as Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states on alert, and revives the discussion about energy security and collective military security on the continent. • China is playing a balancing role, exploiting the crisis to strengthen its diplomatic and economic position in Europe and Central Asia. 2- Economic Dimensions • Oil and gas prices have risen with the continuation of the conflict, with Brent crude reaching $67.55 a barrel and WTI reaching $63.42, due to concerns about supply disruptions. • Food supply chains are affected, especially Ukrainian grain exports, which threatens food security in the Middle East and Africa. • Investors are watching the markets cautiously, with noticeable fluctuations in currency and stock markets as a result of increased risks. 3- Humanitarian Dimensions • The conflict has resulted in the displacement of millions internally and externally, with the suffering of civilians worsening in the most escalated areas. • Humanitarian organizations warn of a potential catastrophe if attacks continue without urgent diplomatic intervention. 4- Military Dimensions • Russia is relying on a strategy of prolonging the conflict to gain influence at the international table, while Ukraine derives its strength from military and political support from the West. • Confrontations are focused on strategic areas (Donbas, Kharkiv), with both sides using modern warfare tactics, including drones and anti-aircraft defenses. 5- Implicit Political Messages • The continuation of the war makes it clear that any quick peace agreement faces serious obstacles, and highlights the importance of the mediating role of international organizations. • Major countries are watching closely to determine their future diplomatic and military moves, taking into account the repercussions of the conflict on energy markets and global stability. Behind the News • Behind the official event: The war is not just a military conflict, but an economic and diplomatic war of influence whose effects extend from Europe to Asia and Africa. • The hidden strategic aspect: The continuation of the conflict provides opportunities for covert negotiations, where each side uses the war as a political bargaining chip.