Hadramout Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi: Reshaping Influence Maps in Eastern Yemen

Arab Sea Newspaper - Special

Hadramout Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi: Reshaping Maps of Influence in Eastern Yemen Strategic Analysis: Hadramout Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi: Reshaping Maps of Influence in Eastern Yemen Strategic Analysis ⸻ Introduction: Hadramout Governorate is witnessing rapid transformations in its political and military structure following the decision to dismiss its governor, Mabkhout bin Madhi, and appoint Dr. Salem Ahmed Al-Khanbashi in his place. This decision, which appears administrative on the surface, is deeply rooted in a complex regional conflict between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over influence in eastern Yemen, and cannot be understood in isolation from the new balances in the south and east, and the connections of energy, ports, and maritime security. This paper seeks to provide an in-depth strategic reading of this event by analyzing the motives and hidden aspects, assessing the outcomes, and placing it within the broader framework of reshaping the alliances of the Yemeni war. ⸻ First: Describing the Current Scene 1. Power Structure in Hadramout Hadramout is divided into two main blocs: * The Coast: Where the security influence of forces affiliated with the UAE is located. * The Valley and the Desert: Where the First Military Region and tribal forces loyal to or allied with Riyadh are concentrated. 2. Sensitivity of the Hadramout Location Hadramout is not an ordinary administrative unit; rather, it is a region that controls three strategic axes: * Wealth: Oil and gas fields. * Geography: The largest governorate in Yemen and an area of land influence extending to the Saudi borders. * The Sea: A long coastline that represents a fulcrum for controlling the sea lanes of the Arabian Sea. 3. Military Movements Parallel to the Administrative Decision In parallel with the dismissal of Bin Madhi, Hadramout is witnessing: * Mobilization of forces coming from Al-Dhalea, Yafa, and Radfan. * Mobilization of the tribes of the valley and the desert towards any expansion. * Disruption in the balances of civil authority. This connection between the administrative procedure and the field activity indicates that the decision is part of a process of re-engineering the scene. ⸻ Second: Analyzing the Motives 1. Saudi Motives A. Restoring Influence in the East After the decline of Riyadh's influence in Aden and Shabwa, it finds in Hadramout the last strategic area to restore balance. B. Protecting Potential Energy Lines Saudi Arabia has a security and economic vision regarding the possibility of extending oil export lines through the Arabian Sea in the future. C. Attempting to Control the Tools of the Coalition Riyadh has become more sensitive to the imbalance of power in favor of Abu Dhabi. 2. Emirati Motives A. Controlling Ports and the Coast The Hadramout coast is seen as an extension of the series of maritime influence: Aden - Balhaf - Mukalla - Mocha - Bab al-Mandab. B. Imposing a Security Reality that Protects its Influence in the South Abu Dhabi believes that controlling the eastern coast is necessary to complete the military and naval influence project. C. Undermining Opponents Within Hadramout Any authority supported by Saudi Arabia represents a threat to its project. 3. Motives of Local Parties A. Tribes Their desire to prevent external expansion on their land. The tribes of Hadramout reject any guardianship, whether northern or southern. B. Hadrami Elites Moving between two obsessions: * Protecting local identity. * Avoiding entering into a regional conflict by proxy. ⸻ Third: The Hidden Aspects - What is Behind the Visible Event 1. Collapse of the "Power Sharing" Agreement Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi The understanding that was based on: * Saudi cooperation in Shabwa In return for * Reducing Emirati expansion in Hadramout It is no longer in effect when Abu Dhabi prevented forces loyal to Riyadh from entering Mukalla. 2. Concerns About Loyalty Within the Hadrami Formations Abu Dhabi does not trust that the Hadrami elites will fight against their people in an internal conflict, so it relies on forces from other governorates. 3. The New Governor... A Functional, Not Administrative, Role The appointment of Salem Al-Khanbashi has broader dimensions than just an administrative change: * The man represents a clear Saudi option. * His authority will be determined according to military balances, not according to his constitutional powers. * The decision reflects Riyadh's desire to re-engineer civil administration in favor of its project. 4. Division Within the Southern Components The Southern Transitional Council suffers from: * Increasing Hadrami rejection. * Internal divisions in Aden, Abyan, and Shabwa. * A social legitimacy crisis in the East. This environment prevents Abu Dhabi from achieving a smooth breakthrough. ⸻ Fourth: Situation Assessment - Possible Scenarios 1. Scenario of Military Escalation (Battle of Attrition) Indicators: * Mobilizing forces from outside Hadramout. * High tribal tension. * Saudi-Emirati dispute unresolved. Possible Results: * Clashes on the coast. * Disrupting oil production. * A sharp division within the governorate. 2. Scenario of Temporary "Power Sharing" Possible if a new understanding is reached: * The UAE maintains its control over the coast. * Saudi Arabia maintains the valley. * Keeping the lines of tension without explosion. A fragile scenario, but it can remain temporarily. 3. Scenario of "Hadrami Neutrality" In which local forces advance: * The tribe * Civil society * Traditional leaders To impose a field equation that prevents both parties from imposing absolute authority. This scenario is becoming more realistic due to: * Cohesion of Hadrami identity * Strength of the tribal alliance * Awareness of the local community of the danger of external interference 4. Scenario of a Major Regional Settlement Requires a broader Saudi-Emirati understanding that includes: * Aden * Shabwa * The Hadramout Coast But this scenario requires a development in relations between the two parties that goes beyond the current differences, and British-American intervention, to resolve it, and give the Yemenis a chance to manage their country. ⸻ Fifth: The Event in the Balance of Regional Strategy 1. Hadramout Becomes a Central Axis in the War Equation It is no longer a marginal governorate; rather, it is a region that determines the future of energy corridors and the Arabian Sea. 2. Saudi Arabia and the UAE Redefine Their Roles The competition over Hadramout reflects the decline of the old alliance formula that governed the first years of the war. 3. Maritime Security Has Become Part of the Conflict Mukalla and the neighboring ports have become important elements for any regional project to control the shipping lane from the Arabian Sea to the Horn of Africa. 4. The Hadrami Tribal Role Enters the Regional Equation The tribe is no longer just a social element, but a strategic player that redefines the balance of power. ⸻ Sixth: Summary and Conclusions * The decision to dismiss Bin Madhi is not administrative, but part of a battle to reshape influence in eastern Yemen. * Hadramout has become a center of Saudi-Emirati conflict where energy, the sea, and the tribe intersect. * The tribes and Hadrami elites today represent a decisive factor in preventing hegemony projects. * A "battle of attrition" is possible if the scene is not regionally controlled. * Any military explosion will turn Hadramout into a proxy war zone and will directly affect its social fabric. * The most likely scenario is a regional repositioning that balances influence without complete resolution. ⸻ Seventh: Strategic Recommendations (For Publication or Discussion) 1. Complete neutralization of Hadramout from any regional conflict through a local - tribal - civil initiative. 2. Strengthening the independence of the local authority's decision within a clear legal framework that prevents political employment. 3. Rebuilding local security forces not affiliated with parties outside the governorate. 4. Encouraging a Saudi-Emirati dialogue specifically on the Hadramout file to prevent sliding towards confrontation. 5. Empowering traditional Hadrami forces in shaping the future of the governorate within any comprehensive Yemeni settlement, decided through a purely Yemeni dialogue table without any external interference, supported by a firm direct British-American role, to achieve a just, comprehensive and sustainable peace. Summary of the Summary: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not fighting in Yemen... but are fighting with the Yemenis over the form of influence in their country. A conflict that is no longer hidden, its battles are managed by proxies, and its bills are paid with the blood and future of the Yemenis, While the Yemeni geography is turning into an open arena for redrawing the balances of regional power. And between regional ambition and national vacuum, The Yemeni remains the biggest loser... And the homeland is the most precious price.