Saudi-Emirati Summit in Riyadh: Palestine in the Open... and Yemen Behind the Scenes
Arabian Sea Newspaper - Special
Saudi-Emirati Summit in Riyadh: Palestine in Public ... and Yemen Behind the Scenes Riyadh - Strategic Analysis - Arab Sea Riyadh witnessed yesterday, Wednesday, a Saudi-Emirati summit that brought together Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in a meeting described as "brotherly" and came at a time of great regional sensitivity. Palestine in ... the Forefront of Statements Official statements issued after the summit focused on the Palestinian issue, where the two sides stressed support for the "two-state solution" and rejected recent Israeli practices, while affirming the continuation of joint diplomatic efforts to protect Palestinian rights and revive the peace process. Bilateral relations and economic and investment cooperation files were also discussed, in light of the two countries' desire to strengthen their position as a major center of gravity in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Yemen ... The Unspoken File Despite its absence from official statements, monitoring sources confirm that the Yemeni file was strongly present in the unannounced discussions, as it cannot be ignored that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the most influential actors in the Yemeni arena since 2015. The Yemeni crisis - with its humanitarian, economic and military complexities - is no longer just an internal matter, but has turned into a strategic regional file that reflects the balance of power between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Map of Interests ... in Yemen Party Direct Objectives Tools Used Strengths / Influence Saudi Arabia Protecting the southern borders - preventing the establishment of a hostile entity on its borders - securing its security depth Supporting the internationally recognized government - diplomatic mediation - financial influence Geographical depth - political legitimacy - its regional weight. UAE Control of ports and islands - consolidating long-term economic and commercial influence - establishing southern influence bases Local forces loyal and mortgaged to it - investments in ports - direct security influence Naval superiority - a network of local alliances - positioning in sea lanes. Points of Convergence Confronting the Houthis - keeping Yemen under the influence of the coalition, despite the will of its people - dispersing its living national forces - preventing third forces (Iran / Turkey / Qatar) from expanding Intermittent military coordination - unified discourse in international forums Huge financial and military capabilities. Points of Conflict The southern file (unity vs. secession) - management of ports and islands - the nature of the final political solution Conflict of local agents - divergence of economic agendas Threatening the cohesion of the coalition - complicating settlement opportunities and the continued suffering of Yemenis. Potential Outcomes 1. Continuation of the Status Quo: The continuation of blatant and double interventions without real solutions, which means more chaos and internal collapse in Yemen. 2. Saudi-Emirati Understandings Regarding Yemen: May lead to a redistribution of areas of influence, but will keep Yemeni sovereign decision-making mortgaged to the outside. 3. Strategic Review Under Popular and International Pressure: Growing popular anger at home against them, in parallel with international pressure, may push the two countries to reformulate their role in a way that ensures a minimum of stability and reduces tension. Conclusion: The Saudi-Emirati summit in Riyadh showed that Palestine is the declared title, but Yemen is the implied title. What happened was not just a bilateral meeting to exchange pleasantries, but a station to re-evaluate the cards of influence in the region. The strategic question that imposes itself: Are the two countries heading towards a serious review of their policies in Yemen in line with the legitimate aspirations of the Yemeni people, or will Yemen remain an arena for settling scores and reproducing alliances? The answer will determine not only the future of Yemen, but the credibility of the entire Gulf role in the region. The People See ... the Scene Clearly It is no longer possible to convince Yemenis that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are merely "peace brokers." After a decade of interventions, they are seen as an integral part of the problem, not as part of the solution. The people who have starved and whose institutions have been broken see that the war has turned into an economy of influence, and that humanitarian aid is nothing but a political cover to perpetuate a dysfunctional reality and an occupied country. The strategy that bets on managing the crisis instead of solving it may drain Yemen for years, but in return it also drains the image of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in people's minds. With the accumulation of popular and international pressures, the two countries may sooner or later find themselves facing a shocking reality: No influence can settle on angry land, nor can any authority be built at the expense of the dignity of an entire people.
