Yemen Between the Missile Equation and the Currency: A Strategic Map of the National Scene, September 3, 2025

Arabian Sea Newspaper - Special

Yemen Between the Missile Equation and the Currency: A Strategic Map of the National Scene, September 3, 2025 First: The Broader National Scene * UN–Houthi Escalation: The United Nations has raised the number of its staff detained by the Houthis to 19 after raids on UN headquarters, threatening relief operations and complicating humanitarian access. * Continued Ballistic and Naval Messages: The group announced new attacks on ships in the Red Sea, while Tel Aviv spoke of intercepting a missile launched from Yemen—a path that keeps the Yemen front within the balance of regional deterrence. * Stabilizing the Houthi Home Front: Indications of a reassembling of the leadership ranks after a strike targeted senior leaders in Sana'a, with a mobilization speech for the "post-assassination" phase. Second: Aden (Temporary Capital) * Currency and Banking Supervision File: The Central Bank in Aden continues its policy of "regulatory control" over exchange companies (suspension/withdrawal of licenses and closures), an extension of the campaign of the past weeks that affected dozens of establishments, coinciding with a noticeable improvement in the riyal's price in government areas. The significance of this: gradually restoring monetary confidence and curbing speculation. * Electricity and Services: Despite the relative intermittent improvement, the crisis of long outages remains a pressing reality on livelihoods and is invoked as a factor of social/security fragility in any economic disruption. * Sea Lanes/Port of Aden: Shipping sector updates show the impact of the conflict on ship traffic in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with continued operational risks and warnings for navigation. Aden Summary – Strategic Angle: The Central Bank's success in "drying up" speculation channels gives the government an economic leverage tool against the Houthis, but the continued fragility of services (electricity) keeps the potential for protest high if the price falters again. Third: Hadramout * Previous Demands-Based Movement in Wadi Hadramout (Tarim): A wave of escalating peaceful protests over the deterioration of living conditions and services emerged last month, a "barometer" to read to know the direction of the social mood if treatments slow down. Hadramout Summary – Strategic Angle: The relative calm today is conditional on tangible improvement in services and job opportunities; any economic setback may revive the momentum for protests. Fourth: Marib * Education and School Fees: The education authority in Marib set ceilings on fees in private schools and mandated controls after attempts to "manipulate discounts" with the change in the exchange rate. This reflects an attempt to fortify the service sector from the impact of currency fluctuations. * Weather Conditions and Disasters: Heavy rains and floods in the past two days have left deaths/injuries and widespread damage; bringing the climate risk file back to the forefront in a governorate with a high density of displaced persons. Marib Summary – Strategic Angle: Marib balances between the services/displaced persons front and the lines of contact. Any simultaneous climatic or military pressure may create a complex crisis. Fifth: Taiz * Local Decisions to Alleviate Burdens: An official meeting today to reduce service fees for citizens and confirm their implementation—a step to absorb the impact of prices on the weaker segments. * Cholera Outbreak: The rise in suspected cases to more than 7,300 with recorded deaths (≥20), which calls for urgent health mobilization and water/sanitation resources, before the situation turns into a widespread outbreak. Taiz Summary – Strategic Angle: The health dimension has become a human security factor; controlling fees is not enough without urgent intervention in water and sanitation services. Sixth: Supplementary Field Notes * Mines in Al-Jawf and Lahj: Three deaths and several injuries this week in mine incidents—a reminder that the explosives file is an "extended cost of the war" and drains communities even far from the fronts. * Shabwa (Energy): A move to establish 3 gas-powered power plants in the governorate—if realized, it is a structural shift to reduce energy costs and raise service stability in the southeast. Rapid Strategic Assessment 1. Economy vs. Missile: The government is betting on monetary/service stability in Aden, Marib, and Taiz, while the Houthi is betting on regional pressure through missiles and the Red Sea—a conflict of "tools" and not just fronts. 2. Pressing Humanitarian Issues: The detention of UN staff, along with the cholera outbreak and the Marib floods, threatens to turn the scene into a complex crisis that undermines any economic gains. 3. Diplomatic Window – Maritime Security: The continued risks to navigation put Bab al-Mandab/Aden under constant UN scrutiny; any reduction in maritime escalation will directly benefit supply chains and port resources.