Israel moves its battle to Sanaa: Strategic assassination messages in the heart of the Red Sea.

Arab Sea Newspaper - Special

Israel Moves its Battle to Sanaa: Strategic Assassination Messages in the Heart of the Red Sea Sanaa - Arabian Sea Strategic Analysis The targeting of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on Thursday evening, accompanied by an unprecedented Israeli admission that it was intended to assassinate senior leaders of the Ansar Allah group (Houthis), was not just a passing military incident. Rather, it can be described as a qualitative shift in the equations of the regional conflict, as the conflict has moved from the fronts of Gaza and southern Lebanon to the Yemeni depths, with its implications for global maritime security and strategic balances in the Middle East. Dimensions of the Israeli Operation Israel's announcement through the official broadcasting corporation and army radio that it targeted a meeting of Houthi military and political leaders, including the Prime Minister, Chief of Staff Major General Abdul Karim al-Ghamari, and prominent ministers, shows that the operation is not just a tactical response, but a strategic assassination intended to: 1. Break the prestige of the Houthis, who have established their presence as an effective regional force in the Red Sea. 2. Move the battle to a direct offensive level in the Yemeni depths, after Israel had been responding through intermediaries or through naval raids. 3. Present an image of strength to the troubled Israeli public, politically and militarily, due to the Gaza war and the pressure of the International Criminal Court on war criminal Netanyahu. War of Narratives and Legitimacy The Houthis' quick denial and Israel's public confirmation fall within the framework of the battle of narratives. Israel needs to establish an image of external victory to cover up its failures in Gaza, while the Houthis realize that admitting losses of this magnitude will lead to internal turmoil and may be exploited to justify further strikes against them. This media war is not a secondary detail, but an integral part of the strategic psychological warfare that parallels the field war. Implications for the Region and the Red Sea • On Yemen: The escalation may lead the Houthis to intensify their naval attacks against Israeli ships or those heading to it, raising the level of threat to international navigation in Bab al-Mandab. • On the Red Sea: The region becomes more exposed to unprecedented militarization, as Washington and its allies may push for expanding the international maritime coalition, under the pretext of protecting global trade. • On Iran and the axis of resistance: The strike is tested as a direct message to Tehran that its "arms" are no longer safe, and that Israel is capable of moving the confrontation to every regional arena. • On Europe and the United States: The event reinforces the justification for increased Western intervention in the Red Sea, under the slogan of "securing navigation," while the strategic goal is to contain Iranian-Houthi influence in this sensitive region. Possible Outcomes 1. Mutual escalation: If the targeting of prominent leaders is proven, the Houthis will respond through qualitative operations in the Red Sea or by targeting the Israeli depths with missiles and drones. 2. Expanding the scope of the conflict: The strike opens the door to a direct public confrontation between Israel and the Houthis, after years of indirect confrontation. 3. Deeper internationalization of the Yemeni crisis: It is likely that there will be increasing talk in international circles about "Yemen as a miniature global war front," linking Gaza, Beirut, Sanaa, and Tehran. Strategic Conclusion Israel did not just bomb Sanaa, but wanted to announce it clearly to send a double message: • To the Israeli public: "We still have the upper hand." • To the Houthis and Iran: "There are no red lines anymore." But the most dangerous result is that the Red Sea, the vital artery of global trade and energy, is gradually turning into an open conflict arena, making the entire global economy hostage to the policy of "strategic assassinations." Direct Repercussions on Egypt and Saudi Arabia The Israeli strike in Sanaa is not an event that concerns the Houthis alone, but leaves direct effects on Egyptian and Saudi national security for two main reasons: 1. Egypt: • The Suez Canal represents a vital artery for the Egyptian economy, and any escalation in Bab al-Mandab means reducing the movement of ships passing through it. • Cairo realizes that the militarization of the Red Sea will disrupt its maritime strategy, which has always relied on a balance between regional powers. • Any expansion of Israel's direct influence in the Red Sea may be interpreted in Egypt as an undesirable strategic breach, placing it before additional geopolitical challenges. 2. Saudi Arabia: • Despite the course of indirect negotiations between it and the Houthis, the Israeli strike reshuffles the cards and threatens the stability of the "fragile truce" on its southern borders. • Riyadh realizes that any retaliatory Houthi response to Israel may extend to its oil facilities or strategic ports, returning it to the square of security attrition. • In the broader strategic dimension, Saudi Arabia finds itself between the hammer of understanding with the Houthis and the anvil of alliance with Washington and Tel Aviv in the Red Sea file. Bottom Line: What happened in Sanaa yesterday was not just a military targeting, but a strategic earthquake that puts Egypt and Saudi Arabia before a more complex equation: • Either engaging in the "Red Sea Alliance" led by the US-Israeli to control the Houthis. • Or maintaining de-escalation channels with Sanaa to avoid detonating borders and vital interests.