Iraq is facing a dangerous change, and the reason is the Popular Mobilization Forces Law.

Arab Sea Newspaper - Special

Arab Gulf - Follow-ups: Iraq finds itself today at a dangerous crossroads, not only because of the complexities of the internal scene and the division of political forces over the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) law, but also due to increasing international pressure, most notably the American warnings against passing the law in its current form. The issue has turned from a mere legislative draft into a national crisis that threatens to open the door to a confrontation with Washington, while at the same time deepening the internal rift between the Iraqi components. Iraqi political sources confirmed that the government is moving to withdraw the draft law on service and retirement for the PMF from Parliament, after it became clear that some of its clauses require deeper amendments and more comprehensive discussions. This retreat came in light of a remarkable message from the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, in which he announced that he had received clear American warnings against passing the law in its current form. The question that arises here is: Has Iraq succumbed to American threats? And will the law open the door to an internal crisis, or will it turn into a political confrontation with Washington, especially with the announcement by the American forces of their intention to carry out an early withdrawal from Iraq, contrary to the agreed-upon timetable? A new political turning point During his conversation with Studio One with Fadila, Professor of Political Science Muataz al-Najm painted a bleak picture of what this law might entail, saying: "The Iraqi government, I believe after the American withdrawal, realized the danger of going outside the will of the United States... Iraq is still mortgaged to the United States, whether economically or even politically." From this standpoint, al-Najm believes that the PMF law represents a dangerous turning point in the modern history of Iraq. On the one hand, it reflects the ambitions of some political forces to consolidate their influence, but on the other hand, it puts Iraq in direct confrontation with the United States and the international community. Al-Najm identifies two contradictory paths, each of which controls the course of the discussion about the law: The national path that calls for the common interest of Iraq and adherence to the international compass. The partisan path that employs the PMF as a political tool to enhance the influence of certain blocs, especially the forces of the "Coordination Framework." He adds: "Today, we demand that the government look through a comprehensive national lens at the Iraqi interest... Iraq, with its geostrategic and geo-economic location, cannot deviate from the international compass, especially in light of the current regional disputes and international conflicts." Internal divisions complicate the scene Al-Najm pointed out during his speech that the division within the Iraqi political scene is the most prominent thing that complicates the passage of the law. The current government, led by the State Administration Coalition bloc, suffers from sharp internal differences, especially between its components within the "Coordination Framework." According to al-Najm, the framework is divided into two wings: a team that insists on passing the law to enhance the legitimacy of the PMF, and another that fears the international consequences and American reactions. In contrast, the Sunni and Kurdish components remain explicitly reserved, as they view the law as a tool that threatens the political balance that has existed since 2003 and enhances the dominance of Shiite armed factions over the joints of the state. The PMF between constitutional legitimacy and disturbing practices From a legal point of view, al-Najm recalls that the Iraqi constitution, in its ninth article, does not allow the presence of forces outside the official security system. It is true that the House of Representatives Resolution No. 40 of 2016 legalized the PMF and linked it to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, but practices on the ground have exceeded this framework. This reality has created an internal crisis of confidence, as Iraqis view with suspicion the practices of some factions that have political, military, and economic arms, which undermines the sovereignty of the state and threatens internal stability. The American dimension One of the most dangerous dimensions of the crisis is the American position. The warnings conveyed by the Speaker of Parliament are not just passing remarks, but reflect a veiled threat to impose sanctions or take political steps against the Iraqi government. Al-Najm explained that Washington views the law as a message of "defiance," especially in light of an early military withdrawal from Iraq. Any attempt by the forces of the "Coordination Framework" to go too far in challenging the American will may open the door to a direct confrontation. What needs to be changed? From al-Najm's point of view, the amendments required in Iraq must ensure: Fully integrating the PMF into the official security system. Canceling any economic or political activities of the armed factions. Ensuring the independence of the Iraqi political decision from the influence of the armed forces. Sending reassuring messages to the inside and outside that the PMF is working within the framework of the state only. Iraq between testing sovereignty and external pressures Between American warnings and internal divisions, Iraq finds itself today facing a difficult test of national sovereignty. Either it succeeds in formulating a law that fully integrates the PMF into state institutions and preserves internal balance, or it slides into a new crisis that threatens its political and security stability. The law, in the end, is not just a legislative text, but a mirror of a deeper conflict between a comprehensive national state project and armed partisan projects that want to impose their influence. As much as the law represents a pivotal moment, it also reveals the fragility of internal balances and external pressures, leaving Iraq at a dangerous turning point that may determine its future for years to come.