A crisis of confidence is escalating between the government and armed militias in Baghdad.

Arabian Sea Newspaper - Special

Arab Sea - Follow-ups: The relationship between the Iraqi armed militias and the Baghdad government is going through a highly sensitive phase, after the release of the Russian-Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, in a move described as a "political-security deal" that transcends borders. While the operation was considered an indication of the possibility of establishing red lines between the Iraqi government and the armed militias, questions are mounting about whether this calm will last long or whether it is just a temporary truce until after the upcoming parliamentary elections? Cross-referenced information indicates that the deal included an undeclared pledge to reduce mutual targeting, both by Israel and by pro-Iranian militias, in exchange for Tsurkov's release. The operation took place amid intense US pressure that linked economic and security files to the fate of the kidnapped researcher. For his part, the head of the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies, Dr. Ghazi Faisal, explained that "the factions are now adhering to a temporary truce, especially after the US House of Representatives' decision to cancel the 1991 war authorization and the 2002 war authorization on Iraq, as well as with the repositioning of US forces and moving towards adopting a comprehensive strategic partnership with Baghdad within the framework of the 2008 agreement approved by the Iraqi Parliament in 2009." Faisal added that "this truce is linked to regional variables in the Middle East. The factions allied with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and subject to the directives of Supreme Leader Khamenei will not stand idly by if a wide confrontation breaks out between Iran and Israel or Washington, but will participate in supporting military operations in defense of Tehran." The head of the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies pointed out that "the current truce is temporary, and it depends on the development of the security and military situation in the region, from Lebanon, where the Hezbollah weapons file is, to Yemen and Gaza, which are awaiting new agreements after the prisoner exchange." According to observers, the release of Tsurkov carried multiple messages. Washington proved its ability to impose its agenda even through indirect channels, while the factions wanted to show their ability to hold cards capable of disrupting stability whenever they wanted. As for the Iraqi government, it found itself forced to provide dual guarantees, once to Washington and once to the militias, to maintain internal balance. The timing of the operation was not accidental, as it came weeks before the legislative elections scheduled for next November, which are seen as a difficult test for all political forces. It is likely that the factions chose to freeze the military escalation to avoid embarrassing their allies within parliament, or negatively affecting the Coordination Framework's chances of achieving influential results. The Iraqi government is trying to paint a picture of its ability to manage security files away from direct confrontation with the militias, but it realizes that any miscalculation could lead to a new explosion. For his part, security researcher Abdul Ghani Al-Ghadhban said that "the release of Tsurkov was nothing more than a deal between the government and the factions. As for talking about a comprehensive agreement between Washington and the factions, it is inaccurate. What happened did not exceed being a threat deal, as Washington gave the factions a specific period before threatening direct strikes, which forced the kidnappers to release the researcher for fear of being targeted." Al-Ghadhban added that "the truce between the government and the factions is still in place, especially since the factions received promises and money in exchange for the release of Tsurkov, but the future of this truce remains linked to the upcoming elections, if they actually take place, as the factions have candidates and lists that they want to get into parliament, which means that any escalation is postponed until the new political map becomes clear." Observers agree that the next stage will remain open to all possibilities, whether continued calm if the factions adhere to their red lines, or a return to escalation if regional developments impose a new rhythm.