"Quota" Hezbollah tension... with fears of postponing the Lebanese elections.

Arabian Sea Newspaper - Special

**Arab Gulf - Follow-ups:** Lebanese political sources said that fears of postponing the upcoming parliamentary elections in May 2026 are escalating in light of the many overlapping issues, including the failure to reach a consensus or a formula that would lead to a legislative amendment to the election law by specifying a "quota" dedicated to expatriate deputies and allowing Lebanese abroad to vote for all parliamentary seats. The sources explained, in statements, that Hezbollah will prepare several obstacles, including political and legal ones in the House of Representatives, to prevent any amendment to the election law related to the voting of Lebanese abroad for all 128 parliamentary seats, and to work with the expatriate deputies' quota represented in 6 seats. The sources stated that the largest weight of the expatriate bloc goes to voting against the Shiite duo, which makes Hezbollah bet on disrupting any attempts to amend the election law, and increases the possibility of political confrontations erupting to obstruct the completion of the parliamentary process on time, so that the postponement is deliberate, in light of assessments confirming that more than 70% of expatriate voters are on the sovereign line led by the "Lebanese Forces" party and opposed by Hezbollah and its allies. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is committed to holding the parliamentary elections on time and not postponing them, in order to proceed with the "New Republic" project, which requires the validity of constitutional and governmental institutions and not questioning their work, especially since there are many economic and investment commitments and agreements that require a government to exercise its full powers based on a parliament whose legitimacy cannot be questioned by exceeding the legal period of its legislative role. According to the sources, the expatriate file is not about approving the symbolic 6 seats or not, but about their voting from the countries where they reside for 128 seats, which is rejected by the Shiite duo at a time when they realize that amending the law and making the expatriates a voting bloc for all seats harms their chances in the upcoming parliament, especially in light of the rejection by the majority of the diaspora of what Lebanon has reached in terms of Hezbollah's political and military dominance, and their desire to carry out a vote against the Shiite duo. The sources indicated that so far there is no possibility of postponing the holding of elections on time, and if it does happen, it will be for a period of two months within a legal period that allows for this, and it relates to logistical and technical matters pertaining to the conduct of the process, but the fear is that there will be no agreement on making an amendment to the election law related to controversial matters, including the voting of expatriates for all seats in the House of Representatives or working with the existing law. They added that in light of the priorities facing the Lebanese state institutions, whether the presidency, the Council of Ministers, or the House of Representatives, including the disarmament plan and the international conferences dedicated to supporting Lebanon economically and attracting investments, the trend is to work with the law by which the current House of Representatives was elected, and to throw the "bomb" of the election law into the court of the upcoming parliament. Meanwhile, a prominent leader in one of the Lebanese communities in Europe confirms that the existing dispute over a general vote by Lebanese abroad during the upcoming elections comes within the expatriate trend that cares about Lebanon's sovereignty and the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state, so there is a team that rejects this trend and insists that voting remain under the existing law, which is represented by "Hezbollah," and others who adhere to the state's control and bet on the expatriate vote. The source, who declined to be named, believes that Hezbollah is betting on postponing the upcoming elections, hoping to maintain its large parliamentary bloc, which will not be repeated with the upcoming process, during which its size is expected to decrease, and to buy time in the hope of changing the reality regionally with the postponement if it occurs. He continued: "The fears of the Lebanese militia in the upcoming parliamentary elections have reached the point that there will be action from within its popular base against it in the vote, whether at home or abroad, but there will be international pressure to hold the elections on time." He added that Hezbollah is betting on the postponement of the elections on the factor of time, which may bring any changes related to an agreement between the United States and Iran or any other regional development, and that there may be a deal as a result that may go to postponing the file of disarming Hezbollah, even if the Lebanese army at that time had made great strides in it. For her part, Thuraya Shaheen, a specialist in Lebanese affairs, believes that there is insistence from the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, on holding the parliamentary elections on time in May 2026, and it is assumed that until the specified time, all obstacles will be overcome in one way or another so that they are held on schedule, especially since this process completes the new path that Lebanon has entered through the new legitimacy and going strongly for the plan to confine weapons to the state. Shaheen explained that so far there is no trend to postpone the parliamentary elections, which are supposed to be conducted in a transparent manner and with the presence of monitoring from all parties, between international and European associations that follow up like every process. She mentioned that holding the elections on time is a Lebanese, Arab, and international requirement, and work must be done towards holding them on time, especially since Lebanon is moving on the path of the return of the state, its institutions, and its sovereignty. Shaheen addressed the controversial point regarding amending the representation ratios of expatriates in the seats of the upcoming Lebanese parliament, by approving this in the election law or continuing with the existing law, noting that the views between the political rivals in Lebanon on this are contradictory, but it is certain that there will be contacts between them to come up with a middle ground as much as possible. She concluded by saying that the "Lebanese Forces" party wants there to be a vote from the expatriates from the Lebanese abroad through a bloc within the 128 seats in the upcoming parliament, and there is talk of going to an agreement to elect 6 deputies within the framework of "expatriates."