Increasing production by 547,000 barrels per day in September... What does it mean for OPEC+ and the oil market?

Arab Sea Newspaper - Follow-ups

OPEC+ alliance approved, during today's meeting on Sunday, an increase in oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The OPEC+ alliance attributed its decision to stable global economic expectations and current solid market fundamentals. In detail, as stated in a statement issued by the oil alliance, the eight member states of the "OPEC+" group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, and had previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November of 2023, held a meeting, via video conference, on August 3, 2025, to review developments in the petroleum market and its future prospects. In light of the stable future prospects for the global economy and the current positive market fundamentals, as evidenced by the decline in petroleum inventories, and based on what was agreed upon at the meeting on December 5, 2024, regarding the gradual and flexible restoration of voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day starting from April 1, 2025, the participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 compared to the required production level in August 2025, which is equivalent to four monthly increases. Restoring Market Share... and Supporting Market Stability It is worth noting that the gradual restoration of voluntary production adjustments can be temporarily suspended or adjusted, depending on market variables, which gives the group the necessary flexibility to support market stability, as the eight member states of the OPEC+ group noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for participating countries to accelerate compensation efforts. The eight countries also renewed their commitment to the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary adjustments agreed to be monitored at the 53rd meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee held on April 3, 2024, and affirmed their determination to fully compensate for the excess quantities in production since January 2024. The eight countries will hold monthly meetings to follow up on market developments, the level of commitment, and the implementation of compensation plans, with the next meeting to be held on September 7, 2025. The OPEC+ alliance, which pumps about half of the world's oil, has cut its production for several years to support the market, but reversed course this year to regain its market share. Eight members of the OPEC+ alliance began raising production in April with a small increase of 138,000 barrels per day, followed by larger increases of 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, July, and then 548,000 barrels per day in August. However, oil prices maintained their gains, with Brent crude closing near $70 a barrel on Friday, up from its 2025 low of around $58 recorded in April. OPEC+ attributed the acceleration of production increases to strong market fundamentals. Drilling rigs and oil barrels with the OPEC logo With the group's approval to increase production by 548 barrels per day in September, it will completely eliminate the previous cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, and will allow the UAE to raise production by 300,000 barrels per day. The OPEC+ alliance is still implementing a separate voluntary reduction of about 1.65 million barrels per day from eight members, and another of two million barrels per day from all members, and both tranches expire at the end of 2026.