$40 Billion at Stake: US Tariffs Threaten India's Arms Deals

Arabian Sea Newspaper - Special

**Arab Gulf - Follow-ups:** **With defense deals between the United States and India worth nearly $40 billion, the question arises as to whether the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will hinder India's plan to purchase American weapons.** **Reports emerged in August, as the tariffs came into effect, indicating that India had stopped finalizing major defense deals with Washington, including a $3.6 billion agreement to purchase six P-8I aircraft from Boeing, and an agreement to purchase "Stryker" combat vehicles produced by "General Dynamics Land Systems," according to the "Eurasian Times" newspaper.** **The Indian government was quick to deny these reports, describing them as "false and fabricated," stressing that "the various cases related to purchases are being processed according to the existing procedures."** **However, in light of the continued deterioration of Indian-American relations, some planned defense deals may face real obstacles.** **Complex Relationships** **Defense deals are not just business transactions, but are often driven by geopolitical alliances; as the relationship between New Delhi and Washington enters a stage of complexity, the question remains: Is it wise for India to continue relying on the United States to meet its defense needs?** **In this context, Asian affairs expert Ahmed Hosni pointed out that tariffs undermine confidence in Washington and put its defense deals at stake, as they push India to a clear equation: either America proves its seriousness as a reliable strategic partner, or New Delhi will immediately move to diversify its sources of weapons and break any unilateral dependence on it.** **Hosni added that although American technology is superior, India has Russian and European alternatives and a rising local industry, making it able to break free from the restrictions of American monopoly.** **The Asian affairs expert pointed out that the obstacles will strengthen India's orientation towards multipolarity, and make it an independent player that imposes its conditions instead of swallowing the conditions of others, to establish itself as a global power that is not dictated decisions.** **Defense deals often extend for decades, from initial discussions to final delivery schedules, and the buyer remains dependent on the supplier for many years after delivery is complete, due to the shortage of spare parts and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facilities.** **As for aircraft, this dependence may last for decades, raising questions about India's ability to rely on Washington in the future, after the United States under Trump showed a degree of unreliability.** **Defense Deals at Stake** **India signed a $4 billion deal to purchase 31 Sky/Sea Guardian drones (15 for the Navy, and 8 each for the Army and Air Force), with the establishment of a maintenance, repair and overhaul center in India, with deliveries to begin by 2029 and be completed by 2030.** **In addition, the aircraft are equipped with advanced surveillance equipment and lethal weapons, including Hellfire missiles and small-diameter laser bombs.** **New Delhi signed a follow-up order to purchase six Apache helicopters for $600 million, after purchasing 22 aircraft for the Army, and deliveries faced repeated delays, and finally the first batch of three helicopters was delivered in July 2025, with the second batch expected to be delivered by the end of the year.** **In August 2021, HAL signed an agreement to supply 99 GE F404-IN20 engines worth $730 million to power LCA Tejas fighter jets, with delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic.** **Negotiations are also underway to purchase 113 F404 engines and 162-180 F414 engines, with 80% of the technology being transferred, making reliance on the United States inevitable.** **India has also requested six additional aircraft worth $3 billion, after already receiving 12 aircraft, amid potential delays due to rising costs.** **At the same time, New Delhi signed a memorandum of understanding to produce Javelin missiles worth $500 million to $1 billion, and India is negotiating a Stryker deal worth $1.5 billion for 530 units, with the possibility of exporting to third countries, despite the existence of local alternatives such as "WhAP" vehicles from Tata.** **India is planning a new tender that includes eight aircraft, including three American ones, with technology transfer and local manufacturing, and the deal is estimated at about $20 billion.** **India aims to purchase 40-80 aircraft to replace the old Antonov An-32 fleet, with competition between C-130J, C-390 Millennium, and A400M Atlas aircraft, worth several billion dollars.** **India's Strategy in the Face of American Pressure** **Despite New Delhi's dissatisfaction with US tariffs, it will not make arbitrary or sweeping decisions; some deals are vital and irreplaceable, such as GE engines for LCA Tejas fighter jets, while other deals such as Stryker can be re-evaluated, as local or Russian/European alternatives are available.** **India seeks to seize the opportunity to obtain better terms, such as the P-8I aircraft deal that has been pending for years. New Delhi also recognizes the importance of maintaining an effective relationship with Washington, within a multi-directional diplomacy, without relying entirely on China or Russia, and maintaining a multipolar world that enables it to obtain technology, investment and defense platforms while stabilizing its borders.** **Accordingly, it is unlikely that a comprehensive decision covering all deals will be taken, but it is certainly able to stop some of the less important deals to send a strategic message that it is able to respond strongly if pushed to the wall.**